分類
美股研究報告

ETSY – 線上文創市集

最大、特別、有設計感的文創商品市集,年營收成長34.5%,逐漸減速中。59%買家一年只消費一次,黏度低成隱憂,去年併購Reverb才維持住成長。
新冠肺炎造成手工口罩大賣,其他類別商品在4月銷售額也增加79%,Q2預估營收年增長70~90%,但疫情過後恐回到之前的營收成長水準。股價漲幅已大,在疫情尚未結束之前可以留意下跌到季線的買點。

Summary

  • 最大、特別、有設計感的文創商品市集,年營收成長34.5%,逐漸減速中。
  • 59%買家一年只消費一次,黏度低成隱憂,去年併購Reverb才維持住成長。
  • 新冠肺炎造成手工口罩大賣,其他類別商品在4月銷售額也增加79%,Q2預估營收年增長70~90%,但疫情過後恐回到之前的營收成長水準
  • 股價漲幅已大,在疫情尚未結束之前可以留意下跌到季線的買點。

公司簡介 About the company

Etsy經營線上的文創市集,許多特別、手工、設計感的商品賣家可以在平台上展示自己的作品,銷售給全球的消費者。目前平台上有280萬個賣家,4770萬個買家,6600種商品。根據Etsy的對其買家的問卷,80%的人認為這裡的商品是別的地方買不到的。而這就是Etsy想要定位的”Special”商品定位。

而”Special”的市場區隔具有黏著力低的特性,也就是消費者重複消費的機會較低,根據Etsy的統計,59%的客戶在一年內只購買一次。而需求通常需要透過被提醒才會觸發。例如婚禮小物、情人節禮物等等都是需要特定情境下才會產生消費的。但此區隔的優點是Amazon, ebay, shopify都沒有這些”特別”商品特性。 所以形成了特殊、獨佔的市集效果。

Etsy的收入來源分為Marketplace Revenue (佔68.4%) 與Services Revenue (佔31.6%)。Marketplace revenue包含5%的成交費、$0.2商品上架費(4個月)、付款手續費。Service Revenue則包含廣告費、運送物資等等。

在新冠疫情的期間,Etsy的賣家多不受影響,可以繼續在家製造與銷售。並且創意與反應快的賣家推出的手工口罩大賣,而其他類別商品在4月份也出現79%的銷售年增率。預計Q2業績將會大幅成長,而這種業績增長是否能持續?,

營收成長 Revenue Growth

Etsy營收年成長率34.5%,並且每季略為減速。2019年中併購Reverb,才又將營收成長拉上接近40%。目前已經穩定獲利。Rule of 40每一季都是40以上。算是穩定度高的公司。這次受到疫情影響提供了相當不錯的客戶增量與營收增加,對於知名度的推廣有加速提升。但因為客戶多為一次性消費的緣故,疫情過後應該會有明顯的成長趨緩。目前手上仍有898M現金,公司的營收增長計畫為併購其他公司。

最新一季財報 2020 Q1 Summary:

  • Total revenue was $228.1 million for the first quarter of 2020, up 34.7% year-over-year. 超出市場預期4.27%
  • Gross profit for the first quarter of 2020 was $145.6 million, up 24.8% year-over-year, and gross margin was 63.9%, down 500 basis points compared with 68.9% in the first quarter of 2019. The contraction in gross margin was primarily driven by amortization related to our recent acquisition of Reverb which is non-cash, and our consolidated ad platform, Etsy Ads, which drives revenue growth but carries an equal offset in cost of revenue.
  • Total operating expenses were $120.3 million in the first quarter of 2020, up 41.4% year-over-year, and represented 52.7% of revenue.
  • Net income for the first quarter of 2020 was $12.5 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.10. Net income was primarily impacted by foreign exchange losses of $9.3 million or $0.08 loss per share.
  • Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2020 was $55.1 million and grew 10.4% year-over-year. NonGAAP Adjusted EBITDA margin (i.e., non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue) was 24.1% in the first quarter of 2020, down 530 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA performance was driven primarily by yearover-year revenue growth.
  • Cash, cash equivalents, short- and long-term investments were $898.1 million as of March 31, 2020. In January 2020, Etsy repurchased an aggregate of approximately $25.0 million, or 543,106 shares of its common stock. However, in light of the macroeconomic situation related to COVID-19, our Board of Directors has decided to temporarily pause share repurchases.
  • Q2 2020 Guidance May 6, 2020
  • GMS Year-Over-Year Growth 80-100% ~$2.0B – $2.2B 財報的亮點
  • Revenue Year-Over-Year Growth 70-90% ~$310M – $340M
    財報的亮點
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin* 23-27% ~$75M – $90M

因新冠肺炎影響,Q2預估營收年成長預估為70~90%成為此次才亮點。

獲利能力 Profitability

Gross Margin (TTM):65.71%
EBITDA Margin (TTM):13.41%
Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM):16.12%

市場估值 Valuation

(Price/(Sales x GM)) / Growth = 0.17
在SaaS群組中屬於最便宜,但因為與族群的屬性較為不同,此指標的意義則不大。

Price / Sale : 目前為10.58,若與ebay的3.34比較高出許多。但若與Shipify比較實在相當便宜。Etsy因為其特殊的市場區隔,與疫情帶來的超成長期待,P/S是有機會往2019年前半的標準12邁進。

2020 Jun Target Price : (updated  2020/05/30)
FY2020營業額預估$1212M(增長48%),P/S 11,股價目標為$113。但因為營收受口罩銷售大幅成長屬於一次性的,疫情後營收會有明顯萎縮,所以投資上應保守。需與疫情的狀況一同評估。

技術分析:股價短線上漲過多,建議仍要以季線(60wma)或上升軌道下元來規劃買入點,搭配評估成本大量區在65以下,所以65左右將是不錯的買點。

股權分佈:股票已經全部掌握在機構投資人手上,代表無須擔心Insider買賣,只需關心基本面是否持續看好。

未來展望 Future Prospect

  • 優勢
    • 在”特殊”商品領域中的領導品牌,目前市場還相當大。
    • 受益於新官肺炎疫情,未來Q2營收預期會有大幅成長。
  • 劣勢
    • 股價短期漲幅帶大,並且帶有投機意味。
    • 口罩消費在疫情過後會逐漸消退,代表營收成長在疫情後會大幅減速。

相關報導 Related Articles

發佈留言

發佈留言必須填寫的電子郵件地址不會公開。 必填欄位標示為 *