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美股研究報告

《Zoom》數位通訊世代的新動詞 – 2020Q1 財報

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) 在北美以及全世界提供網路視訊以及整合通訊服務,讓人與人可以輕鬆透過影像、聲音、文字等,透過手機或電腦,在全世界任何地方進行聯繫。詳細公司介紹請閱讀之前寫的:Zoom Video (ZM) 未來通訊霸主

在新冠肺炎與全球lock down之下,Work From Home的需求讓數位通訊成了讓世界繼續運轉的重要工具。自3月中旬開始,Zoom的網路搜尋量飆升,比第二的Microsoft Teams多出5倍搜尋量。

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根據OKTA的3月login數據統計,Zoom是所有App增長最多的(不含Microsoft Teams)。另外一份直接比較ZM, Webex, RNG的數字則顯示,ZM增長超過200%,大幅贏過Webex, RNG。

在4/22的Zoom blog中表示已達到每日300M個會議參與人,而Microsoft在Q1財報上則是公佈達每日200M會議參與人。顯示兩家企業正激烈搶奪市場,並且成為市場的真正贏家。6/2 ZM公布第一季財報,大家都覺得成長率會很高,但實際數字超過所有人的預估:

First Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Financial Highlights:

  • Revenue: Total revenue for the quarter was $328.2 million, up 169% year-over-year. 市場預估為$203M,業績超出預期61%
  • Income from Operations and Operating Margin: GAAP income from operations for the quarter was $23.4 million, compared to GAAP income from operations of $1.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
  • non-GAAP income from operations for the first quarter was $54.6 million, up from $8.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. For the first quarter, GAAP operating margin was 7.1% and non-GAAP operating margin was 16.6%.
  • Net Income and Net Income Per Share: GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders for the quarter was $27.0 million, or $0.09 per share, compared to GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.2 million, or $0.00 per share in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
    Non-GAAP net income for the quarter was $58.3 million, Non-GAAP net income per share was $0.20. 超出市場預期的$0.10. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, non-GAAP net income was $8.9 million, or $0.03 per share.
  • Cash: Total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of April 30, 2020 was $1.1 billion.
  • Cash Flow: Net cash provided by operating activities was $259.0 million for the quarter, compared to $22.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. Free cash flow was $251.7 million, compared to $15.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
  • Approximately 265,400 customers with more than 10 employees, up approximately 354% from the same quarter last fiscal year.
  • 769 customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12 months revenue, up approximately 90% from the same quarter last fiscal year.
  • A trailing 12-month net dollar expansion rate in customers with more than 10 employees above 130% for the 8th consecutive quarter.

Financial Outlook: Zoom is providing the following guidance for its second quarter fiscal year 2021 and its full fiscal year 2021.

  • Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2021: Total revenue is expected to be between $495.0 million and $500.0 million (原本市場估$224M) and non-GAAP income from operations is expected to be between $130.0 million and $135.0 million. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be between $0.44 and $0.46 with approximately 299 million non-GAAP weighted average shares outstanding.
  • Full Fiscal Year 2021: Total revenue is expected to be between $1.775 billion and $1.800 billion. (原本市場估$940M) This revenue outlook takes into consideration the demand for remote work solutions for businesses.  It also assumed increased churn in the second half of the fiscal year when compared to historic churn levels due to a higher percentage of customers who purchased monthly subscriptions in the first quarter. Non-GAAP income from operations is expected to be between $355.0 million and $380.0 million. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be between $1.21 and $1.29 with approximately 300 million non-GAAP weighted average shares outstanding.

財報亮點

  • 2020全年營收增長估可挑戰1.9B(+200%),客戶數265400,增長354% 超乎所有人估計
  • 獲利能力大增:Q2估non-GAAP EPS QoQ增長150%達$0.5 起跳,全年估1.29起跳,Q1 Free Cash Flow 251.7M Yoy 成長154%,FCF margin 76%業界最高,Cash $1.1B

除了財務報表亮麗之外,還有許多亮點:

  • Zoom提供全球超過10萬家12-K學校免費使用,有如Microsoft與Adobe的市場教育行銷投資
  • Video conference 軟體的網路評比一直都位居第一
  • 積極拓展Zoom marketplace, 鼓勵新創使用Zoom api開發新的zoom應用,舉辦創新開發比賽
  • 自去年就開始推廣Zoom phone並可在全球17個國家使用
  • Glassdoor 4.7超高分,員工最愛的公司

The one thing we know for sure is the TAM is bigger than we thought before.

Zoom不是一個視訊軟體,比較貼切的形容是一個世代的代表,例如個人電腦世代的Microsoft、網路搜尋世代的Google、社交世代的Facebook,數位通訊世代的Zoom。

市場估值

Zoom的P/S相當高(71),然而高達200%的營收成長率則數字就親切許多。代表即使股價不變,過了一年後的P/S是23.67。作為一個世代的代表,ZM的估值應該會一直很貴、波動一直很大。若使用營收$1.98B, PS 44計算,2021年目標價約為$300。

分類
美股研究報告

Zoom Video (ZM) 未來通訊霸主

Summary

  • 市值18B的網路視訊領導品牌,並推出Zoom Phone,進入UCaaS服務
  • 年營收成長(TTM)118%,財報數字優良,32% FCF,本季客戶增長67%
  • 營收成長率逐季減速,Q4預期為75%,明年可能剩下60+%
  • 股價P/S估值高,但已經過43%修正,目前正在築底
  • 2020 Jan 目標價$74~$77

公司簡介 About the company

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) 在北美以及全世界提供網路視訊以及整合通訊服務,讓人與人可以輕鬆透過影像、聲音、文字等,透過手機或電腦,在全世界任何地方進行聯繫。ZM的使用情境相當廣泛,包含了公司內外部的溝通、學校與訓練機構的遠距教學、客戶服務、業務拓展、大型研討會等等,服務各種產業包括科技、教育、媒體、財務、醫療、製造、零售與個人。

ZM的以視訊會議Zoom Meeting為起點,逐步拓展為更全面的通訊服務平台UCaaS。該公司商品如下:

  • Zoom Meetings: Core offering that ties all other products together. Provides HD video, voice, chat, and content sharing across mobile devices, desktops, laptops, telephones and conference room systems. Supports tens of thousands of video participants in a single meeting. Conversations can be one-to-one, one-to-many or many-to-many. It also includes Zoom Chat, which allows users to share texts, images, audio files, and content.
  • Zoom Rooms: Conference room system that enables users to have Zoom Meetings in their physical spaces and runs off 3rd-party, off the shelf hardware. Includes Zoom Rooms Scheduling Display (room scheduling software that runs on a tablet) and Zoom Rooms Digital Signage (enables customers to display content in meeting spaces for marketing, corporate communications, etc).
  • Zoom Phone: Cloud-based PBX system that enables customers to consolidate all business communications onto Zoom.
  • Zoom Video Webinars: Allows customers to conduct large-scale online events such as town hall meetings, workshops, and marketing presentations for up to 10,000 view-only attendees and 100 panelists.
  • Zoom for Developers and Zoom App Marketplace: Enables developers to integrate video, voice, chat, and content sharing into other applications. Their APIs, SDKs, and MobileRTC powered an average of 140M+ API engagements per month in FY’19.
  • Zoom Conference Room Connector: Gateway for H.323 and SIP devices to join Zoom meetings so customers can take legacy on premise systems to the cloud, like Polycom.

視訊服務領域的競爭相當激烈,主要競爭對手包括許多科技大廠Cisco WebEX、Microsoft Skype、Google Hangout,也有各種小型軟體公司GoToMeeting, TeamViewer, join.me等等。根據G2 Research的一份報告,ZM的使用者評價為業界最高98分。ZM的Q3季報中顯示目前客戶數量74100年成長67%,Q3季營收166M年成長85%。數字證明了ZM在眾多競爭者中脫穎而出,IPO後手上的大量現金流更加快了公司在全球市場布局、加大行銷力道、研發延伸通訊功能。在2019 Zoomtopia年會報告中,ZM預估市場TAM為43B,而未來成長策略為1) Upmarket, 2) international, 3) Zoom Phone,並為自己定位為Video-First Unified Communications Platform。Zoom Phone的開發與拓展相當迅速,雖業務內容與RingCentral, Twilio等皆有合作關係,但未來卻又保持競爭。

ZM的收費為訂閱制,從免費到$19.99/mo都有。受到眾多競爭者的影響,低階產品(個人用戶市場)有相當大的價格壓力,企業市場也難有定價能力。但隨著品牌逐漸強大,整合通訊的科技的逐漸完整,將行銷力道集中大型客戶Upmarket是目前的策略。2019Q3 Customer TTM Rev. >100K的數量546年成長98%。Net Expansion Rate 130%,顯示客戶消費增長速度極快。無論表面上看起來市場競爭多激烈,數據都顯示ZM的競爭力相當出色。

Zoom Analyst Meeting at Zoomtopia Presentation – 10/15/2019

營收成長 Revenue Growth(10/10)

ZM最新FY2020Q3營收167M,TTM營收年成長118%,2019 EBITDA margin已經連續三季為正數,在高成長SaaS股中表現相對突出。預估費用也將與業績等速提高,用來拓展國際市場、Zoom Phone等業務。不可避免的,業績年成長將會逐季下降,FY2020Q4預估75%。市場將會相當關注此下降趨勢是否突然太快。但預估QoQ逐季下降至FY2021Q4的10%成長率,FY2021年營收成長率約60%,仍然優於許多SaaS。

最新一季財報 2020 Q3 Summary:

  • Revenue:$166.6M成長85%,優於市場預期$156.2M超出6.64%
  • Adjusted EPS:$0.09,優於市場預期$0.03
  • Gross Margin:81.48%,較上季80.87%小幅上升
  • EBITDA Margin:1.62%,較上季4.19%降低
  • FCF:32.86%,較上季11.75%大幅提升
  • 2020 Q4 Guidance 營收$175~176M,估計可以挑戰$184M,年成長75%
  • 2020全年 Guidance 營收上調$587~590M=>$609~610M,上調3.4%
  • Customer:74100新增7800,年成長67%

獲利能力 Profitability (8/10)

EBITDA Margin(Qtr): 1.62%
Free Cash Flow(Qtr):32.86%
Gross Margin:81.48%

ZM的獲利能力與其他SaaS比較起來相當出色,超強現金流可供業務拓展或併購策略。Rule of 40 = 86.48,員工配股13%算很低。

市場價值 Market Valuation (2/10)

(Price/(Sales x GM)) / Growth = 0.43
在SaaS群組中屬於中間值,因為其增長速度相當的快速,應該可以獲有較高的估值。

Price / Sale : 目前為30,單純以此數字來看是相當的高,但考慮60~70+%的營收成長速度,若股價不變,明年P/S為19。所以用較長遠的角度來看,P/S不算太貴。

2020 Jan Target Price : (updated  2019/12/17)
FY2020營業額預估$610~619M(85% ~87%),P/S在31~35之間,目標價格$74~$77,如遇市場修正P/S降至31,價格$70。若以明年營收成長60%達到984M,股票發行維持在275M股,P/S因為營收成長速度相較其他公司快許多,預計可以享受較高的27~29,2021年1月股價目標約為$100。

技術分析:ZM的Beta高、波動大,股價自從高點107已經修正43%回到IPO的價格。目前Lockup已經到期,股價在62~70為交易大量區,正在進行打底,目前可能會做出W底,突破70後目標為76,底部62~76為主要的盤整區間。建議可以現在買入($66~$68),停損$62。

法人持股:VC/PE持股高達17%是未來賣壓,Insider 31%相當高,Institutions僅持有12%。法人認同仍然太低,帶多散戶持股代表短期內仍將巨幅震盪。股價仍需大量換手整理,所以逢高可以獲利了結。

未來展望 Future Prospect (7/10)

  • 優勢:
    • 2019年營收(TTM)年成長 118%,並且已經獲利,財報優秀,FCF 33%超強
    • Rule of 40 為84,Net Expansion Rate 130%,可互增長率67%,各項Metric表現傑出
    • Zoom Phone 2019新增許多功能,並且在UK、Australia等地區推出,有機會帶動另一波業績成長
  • 劣勢:
    • 視訊/數位通訊等產業都是相當激烈的一級戰區,其中包含Cisco, Microsoft, AT&T, IBM等資金雄厚的科技大廠。
    • 單從P/S角度與其他SaaS比較,估值相當高
    • FY2020前三季營收年成長分別為:103%, 96%, 85%,減速幅度頗大,市場將密切關注未來營收的減速
    • 股票籌碼仍有許多在VC手中,Institutions持股仍太少,未來波動仍大

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