A shakeout is a situation in which many investors exit their positions in a stock or market segment at the same time, often at a loss. A shakeout is usually caused uncertainty or recent bad news circulating around a particular security or industry. Shakeouts can be quite variable in duration, but they are usually sharp in terms of the amount lost from recent highs.
Investment is when a security or an asset is purchased with an intention of holding it for a long term period with a view that it will gradually increase in value over that period and speculation can be considered a more risk based transaction where the sole purpose is to make profit out of that transaction which is generally a short term and often a single transaction.
FVRR打破了國際疆界，讓服務可量化交易。尤其在工作全球化、碎片化、Work from home的職場變革潮流帶動下，完全激發了這個潛力市場。我認為這個商業模式有兩個特點，1)群聚效應(network effect)，越來越多的賣家，可提供買家更多的選擇，並增加賣場熱絡，又導致更多賣家的加入，造成良性循環。2)全球市場資源整合(globalization)，與人力網站/電商網站不同，FVRR沒有地區性限制。過去發達國家要到發展中國家建設工廠，以購買便宜的勞動力。而現在服務產業透過網路，也能買到全球便宜的”服務業”能力。FVRR就像是服務業的”阿里巴巴”網站。
目前FVRR還相當小，營收成長達82%，RULE of 40 高達83%。假設FVRR將行銷費用大幅提高到營收的65%積極擴張模式(2019Q1的水準)，而下一季的營收若成長80+%，其行銷費用可達$33M左右。而UPWK的Q2行銷費用為$34.4M。FVRR未來兩季將有超過競爭對手的行銷預算與其競爭。在這樣的前提之下，未來三季的營收年增長率有望繼續挑戰80+%。
Q2 2020 Highlights:
Strong growth: Revenue grew 82% y/y in Q2’20 with strong execution across product, marketing and operation during the global pandemic. Q1 為43.7% y/y
Historical level of new buyers: Active buyers grew 28% y/y to 2.8 million, implying net adds of over 300K in Q2’20 vs Q1’20
Achieved profitability: Achieved quarterly Adjusted EBITDA profitability for the first time in Fiverr’s history and targeting Adjusted EBITDA profitability for future quarters in 2020
Promoted Gigs expansion: Promoted Gigs are now available to many more sellers, in 15 categories, and on both search and category pages
Two new localized sites: Launched two additional non-English websites in Italian and Dutch as we continued to expand into European countries
Introduced Fiverr Business: a dedicated environment for business buyers to transact and collaborate on Fiverr – marking a key investment in going upmarket
Our guidance: Provided Q3’20 and raised FY20 guidance – revenue is now expected to grow 66-68% for FY20 with expected FY20 Adjusted EBITDA profitability. 預估可挑戰80%以上的營收增長率
Total Net Revenues of $153.0 million, an increase of 63% year-over-year 表現超好，已經贏過大多數的商業SaaS公司。
Chegg Services Revenues grew 57% year-over-year to $126.0 million, or 82% of total net revenues, compared to 86% in Q2 2019
Net Income was $10.6 million
Non-GAAP Net Income was $49.4 million
Adjusted EBITDA was $55.5 million；較去年同期的31M成長79%!! WOW~
3.7 million and 3.5 million: number of Chegg Services subscribers including and excluding Mathway, respectively, an increase of 67% and 58% year-over-year, respectively
375 million: total Chegg Study content views
Business Outlook:
Third Quarter 2020
Total Net Revenues in the range of $140 million to $145 million
Chegg Services Revenues in the range of $110 million to $115 million
Gross Margin between 56% and 57%
Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $21 million to $23 million
Full Year 2020
Total Net Revenues in the range of $605 million to $615 million
Chegg Services Revenues in the range of $490 million to $500 million
Gross Margin between 68% and 69%
Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $190 million to $195 million
Chegg的獲利能力相當不錯，其行銷費用僅佔10%與其他SaaS相比非常的低。根據Chegg的調查，大學生知道Chegg的比例高達87%。所以宣傳上透過Word of mouth的比例應該相當高。但研發開銷高達$40M(30%)倒是比較出乎意外，CRWD約50M，DDOG約46M。但我預估CHGG的研發偏屬於內容製作，未來不會與營收等幅成長，反而會出現研發開銷比例穩定下降。所以未來的獲利可能會越來越好。
市場估值 Valuation
(Price/(Sales x GM)) / Growth = 0.36 在SaaS群組中相對便宜，但因為其商業模式的Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate比較低，其市場估值會比較低。
Price / Sale : 若以營收年成長率差不多的企業來比較，ROKU、FSLY，Chegg的P/S還相對較低，到目前為止仍然保持在20以下。
在A Look Back at Q2 Public SaaS Earnings一文中提供的統計，高成長族群(營收成長>30%)的EV/S (NTM Revenue)在28.3，去年同期約18左右，估值已經上漲了一倍。在追蹤的55家公司中，只有12家的Q2業績成長率是加速的，與想像中數位轉型加速SaaS成長的概念不符。
在10月初，許多雲端股已經上漲超越前高，換句話說，雲端股目前的投資風險比9月下跌前還高，如果錯過9月初的低點買入，那現在股價的風險報酬比普遍不佳，難有風報比1:3的機會。不追高是原則，只能buy the dip，選擇拉回月線或小時線RSI低於30買入，謹慎做多。而另外一種選擇就是買入具”營運轉機”題材，股價還相對低的個股。例如AYX在此波疫情影響下股價大幅回落43%到$105附近，最近提前公布Q3預估營收將回升，股價就大漲28%。
National Restaurant Association 公佈自3月中至7月中，有超過10萬家餐廳倒閉。Full Service餐廳是受到疫情影響的重災區。但更正確地來說，飲食並不會減少，只是改變了地點，而Full Service餐廳紛紛進行了線上點餐、取餐、裁員等措施來因應。根據Crunchtime所做的調查，美國整體餐廳業的營收已經恢復到疫情前的74%。而許多小餐廳的倒閉讓餐飲連鎖店的營收表現比想像中恢復得更快。
泰德·威廉斯在大聯盟保持了61年的打擊率紀錄，在《擊球的科學》（The Science of Hitting）一書中解釋了他的心得。他將棒球場的擊球區劃分成77塊小格子，每塊格子只有棒球那麼大。他只選擇自己擅長的球出棒，落在其他格子的好球也絕不打。交易就像一場數十年的棒球打擊賽，要提高自己的打擊率(獲利)，除了練習揮棒(交易)，也要懂得選球(選擇機會)。透過不斷的練習與改進，變成自己擅長的技巧。
//Trading backtest since
condition100 = year>=2018
//Long Entry Step 1 Cross Up short ma condition1 = s_ma[1] == lowest(s_ma,3) condition2 = close>open and close>s_ma condition3 = s_ma<m_ma condition10 = condition1 and condition2 and condition3 and condition100 plotshape(condition10, style = shape.arrowup, text= “下半身”, location=location.belowbar, color=color.lime, size=size.tiny) //Enter Long Position strategy.entry(“LE_1”, strategy.long, qty = strategy.equity*0.25/close, when = strategy.position_size == 0 and condition10)
//Long Entry Step 2 short ma crossup long ma condition21 = crossover(s_ma,m_ma) and condition100 step2_qty = (strategy.equity*0.75 – strategy.position_size/close)>0 ? (strategy.equity*0.75 – strategy.position_size*close)/close : 0 strategy.entry(“LE_2”, strategy.long, qty = step2_qty, when = condition21) plotshape(condition21, style = shape.arrowup, text= “鳥嘴”, location=location.belowbar, color=color.lime, size=size.tiny)
七月份持股在沒有基本面消息情況下，買賣變少了一些。持有的股票以選股模板的前10名為主，另外包含有落後補漲機會的WORK, ROKU, SQ, GH。策略是選擇用RSI短線(1小時線)跌破30的時候買入，算是Buy the dip策略。而個股大漲會停利。WCLD用來調節持股比例，當個股因為停利或停損賣出後，為了保持一定的投資比例，會買入WCLD。本月獲利貢獻最多的股票是LVGO(4.55%)、TWLO(2%)、WCLD(1.34%)。我覺得持有WCLD的方式來減低波動率是很好的選擇。讓我可以減少進出個股，更專心等待個股的買入/賣出機會。
身為一個交易者，我們深知股票下跌的風險，並且對於經濟、財報的負面消息相當敏感，因為SaaS股票普遍有高BETA，下跌時會比大盤兇猛。所以交易上有設定停利、停損等機制。而如果我們要致力於獲取雲端股的全部上漲潛力，還得留意”上漲風險”。上漲風險就是當股價上漲而手中卻無持股。這一年的交易我發現常常面對是否該追價、是否該全額投資此類的問題。而原因就是低估了飆股的上漲很快、容易超漲、一旦第一時間沒有買入，就會很難說服自己高價買入。而後來就算追買也不敢用100%資金買入。所以知名的討論區投資者Saul倡議的Buy and Hold就是為了賺入所有的上漲空間，所以放棄time the market。同時也代表要承受所有的下檔風險。2018年底與2019年9月分別出現了25%左右的修正。當然這需要訓練自己的強大心理抗壓能力，並不適合所有投資人，但卻是這波產業黃金期”確定”可以吃到全部漲幅的辦法之一。
Earning Score = Gross Margin Score x 20% + EBITDA Margin Score x 50% + LFCF Margin Score x 30%
Valuation Score 5%
EV/(Sales x GM) Score = Max(全部股票的EV/(Sales x GM))3 – EV/(Sales x GM)3 #目前追蹤的股票中假設最高的EV/(Sales x GM)是36，如果個股EV/(Sales x GM)是10，那分數就是363-103=78，反映出個股與最貴股票的相對位置
G/(EV/(Sales x GM)) Score = 個股的G/(EV/(Sales x GM)) / max(G/(EV/(Sales x GM))) #這個Valuation 將Growth也納入考量，然後比較個股的估價相對於估值最高的股票差多少
Valuation Score = 上面兩個Score平均
Potential Score 15%
Leadership – 市場占有率、護城河、競爭者數量
Innovation – 商業模式創新、科技突破、市場破壞
TAM potential – 市場大小、跑道長度
Potential Score = 上面三個主觀給分的平均
Momentum Score 15%
After Earning Report (AER) – 計算財報後一天的價格表現%在計算股票中的相對分數
Joseph 的School of Trade是教期貨當沖策略的，每天都會有1個小時前一天的策略擬定。他最值得學習的是”盤前策略”與”多空心理學”。其中最常用到的”買在空方失敗”、”賣在多方失敗”，與”假跌破”、”假突破”的概念類似。雖然投資股票後，比較不需要這樣子的技術分析技巧，但我早期有操作期貨時從這個頻道學了很多。尤其是交易心理學。
Total revenue was $201.7 million, an increase of 50% year-over-year. 超出市場預期7.19%
Calculated Billings was $206.0 million, an increase of 38% year-over-year. 較上季47%大幅下滑
GAAP gross profit was $176.0 million, or 87.3% gross margin, compared to $116.2 million, or 86.2% gross margin, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. Non-GAAP gross profit was $179.2 million, or 88.9% gross margin, compared to $116.9 million, or 86.7% gross margin, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
GAAP operating loss was $76.2 million, or 37.8% of total revenue, compared to a $38.4 million loss in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, or 28.5% of total revenue. Non-GAAP operating loss was $16.6 million, or 8.3% of total revenue, compared to a $33.8 million loss in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, or 25.0% of total revenue.
GAAP net loss per basic and diluted share was $0.13. Non-GAAP net loss per share was $0.02. 優於市場預期-$0.06
Net cash provided by operations was $8.7 million, or 4% of total revenue, compared to cash used in operations of $14.1 million, or 10% of total revenue, for the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. Free Cash Flow was $3.7 million, or 2% of total revenue, compared to $(34.2) million, or (25)% of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. FCF首度轉正!
Recent Business Highlights:
First Quarter Highlights:
Over 122,000 Paid Customers, up 28% year-over-year. QoQ新增12000!
132% net dollar retention rate. 超高!
963 Paid Customers with greater than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue, up 49% year-over-year.
Over 41,000 Paid Customers using shared channels, up from over 32,000 at the end of last quarter.
Over 750,000 organizations on either a free or paid subscription plan, up from over 660,000 organizations at the end of last quarter.
Financial Outlook:
For the second quarter of fiscal year 2021, Slack currently expects:
Total revenue of $206 million to $209 million, representing year-over-year growth of 42% to 44%. 若以過去水準計算，約可挑戰218M，YoY 50%
Non-GAAP operating loss of $22 million to $18 million.
Non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.04 to $0.03, assuming weighted average shares outstanding of 564 million.
For the full fiscal year 2021, Slack currently expects:
Total revenue of $855 million to $870 million, representing year-over-year growth of 36% to 38%. 僅較上季的預估842~862m上調1%，低於市場預期
Non-GAAP operating loss of $110 million to $100 million. 有機會挑戰損益兩平
Non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.19 to $0.17, assuming weighted average shares outstanding of 567 million.
Etsy營收年成長率34.5%，並且每季略為減速。2019年中併購Reverb，才又將營收成長拉上接近40%。目前已經穩定獲利。Rule of 40每一季都是40以上。算是穩定度高的公司。這次受到疫情影響提供了相當不錯的客戶增量與營收增加，對於知名度的推廣有加速提升。但因為客戶多為一次性消費的緣故，疫情過後應該會有明顯的成長趨緩。目前手上仍有898M現金，公司的營收增長計畫為併購其他公司。
最新一季財報 2020 Q1 Summary:
Total revenue was $228.1 million for the first quarter of 2020, up 34.7% year-over-year. 超出市場預期4.27%
Gross profit for the first quarter of 2020 was $145.6 million, up 24.8% year-over-year, and gross margin was 63.9%, down 500 basis points compared with 68.9% in the first quarter of 2019. The contraction in gross margin was primarily driven by amortization related to our recent acquisition of Reverb which is non-cash, and our consolidated ad platform, Etsy Ads, which drives revenue growth but carries an equal offset in cost of revenue.
Total operating expenses were $120.3 million in the first quarter of 2020, up 41.4% year-over-year, and represented 52.7% of revenue.
Net income for the first quarter of 2020 was $12.5 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.10. Net income was primarily impacted by foreign exchange losses of $9.3 million or $0.08 loss per share.
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2020 was $55.1 million and grew 10.4% year-over-year. NonGAAP Adjusted EBITDA margin (i.e., non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue) was 24.1% in the first quarter of 2020, down 530 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA performance was driven primarily by yearover-year revenue growth.
Cash, cash equivalents, short- and long-term investments were $898.1 million as of March 31, 2020. In January 2020, Etsy repurchased an aggregate of approximately $25.0 million, or 543,106 shares of its common stock. However, in light of the macroeconomic situation related to COVID-19, our Board of Directors has decided to temporarily pause share repurchases.
