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Slack (WORK) -取代email的企業社交平台

Summary

  • 超過75萬家企業使用Slack,用來取代email、改善溝通效率
  • FY2021年營收成長估49%,用戶的使用時間長、黏度高,Net Dollar Retention Rate高達132%
  • 競爭對手Microsoft Teams,使用者人數大幅超越WORK
  • 產品單一,缺乏定價能力,流量難以轉換成營收
  • 股價盤底8個月,頸線$30有機會形成有效支撐,2021 Apr 目標價$46

公司簡介 About the company

Slack 提供企業與團隊一種更有效率的溝通雲端軟體。Slack 如同其名(Searchable Log of All Conversation and Knowledge) 試圖取代email,透過建立各種Channel讓任何時間加入的團隊隊員可以更方便的分享、討論、追蹤、通話、視訊、搜尋重要的溝通內容。而在現今的企業數位化趨勢下,員工使用越來越多的雲端工具。Slack成了整合google drive, zoom, zendesk, jira, salesforce等多重工具的溝通中心。目前Slack可連結2200種App, 65萬種客製App。目前平均使用者一天在Slack連線超過10小時,隨著時間增加與許多溝通內容建立,Slack也像是一個公司知識庫、企業社群媒體。一旦使用過,黏度就會逐年增加。而shared channel功能更是讓公司與公司的溝通像內部溝通一樣方便,並且產生network effect,越來越難以被取代。

透過免費使用的增長策略,目前有超過75萬家企業使用Slack,其中付費企業122,000家佔16.3% (FY2021 Q1)。公司估計市場TAM約$28 Billion,WORK目前TTM營收為$697M。

Slack的主要競爭對手為Microsoft Teams。Teams整合了Microsoft的辦公室工具、網路硬碟、電話/影音通訊,功能的完整度為Slack + G Suite + Zoom三個加總。自2019年Active user就產生黃金交叉,Slack也停止提供相關數據。Microsoft在2020Q1財報中則是提供了新冠疫情造成了Active User大幅增長到75m。最主要的原因是Teams免費且強大的數位電話/視訊功能,對許多人有迫切的需要,其中還包含學校與其他非營利組織use case,市場比Slack的TAM大多了。Slack並不標榜視訊功能,非微軟陣營使用者直接到Zoom去了。所以Teams的active user數字拿來跟Slack相比並不太合理。雖然Teams的成長具有威脅性,但Slack是非微軟陣營的絕對霸主,在一個極度擴張的市場中,WORK仍有廣大的市場機會。
Slack產品單一,並與微軟正面衝突,缺乏定價能力,雖然強調其用戶使用時數高,創造出許多企業知識庫。但不像FB可以將流量變成營收。其地位就像百事可樂,會是最重要的挑戰者,但缺乏戰勝的條件。

營收成長 Revenue Growth

營收成長率(TTM)53.43%,明顯逐季下滑中。在新冠肺炎影響下,數位轉型加速,WORK將獲益,新增客戶數量122000,QoQ增速加速。 FY2021營收成長率預計可停止下滑。

最新一季財報 FY2021 Q1 Summary:

First Quarter Fiscal 2021 Financial Highlights:

  • Total revenue was $201.7 million, an increase of 50% year-over-year. 超出市場預期7.19%
  • Calculated Billings was $206.0 million, an increase of 38% year-over-year. 較上季47%大幅下滑
  • GAAP gross profit was $176.0 million, or 87.3% gross margin, compared to $116.2 million, or 86.2% gross margin, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. Non-GAAP gross profit was $179.2 million, or 88.9% gross margin, compared to $116.9 million, or 86.7% gross margin, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
  • GAAP operating loss was $76.2 million, or 37.8% of total revenue, compared to a $38.4 million loss in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, or 28.5% of total revenue. Non-GAAP operating loss was $16.6 million, or 8.3% of total revenue, compared to a $33.8 million loss in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, or 25.0% of total revenue.
  • GAAP net loss per basic and diluted share was $0.13. Non-GAAP net loss per share was $0.02. 優於市場預期-$0.06
  • Net cash provided by operations was $8.7 million, or 4% of total revenue, compared to cash used in operations of $14.1 million, or 10% of total revenue, for the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. Free Cash Flow was $3.7 million, or 2% of total revenue, compared to $(34.2) million, or (25)% of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. FCF首度轉正!

Recent Business Highlights:

  • First Quarter Highlights:
    • Over 122,000 Paid Customers, up 28% year-over-year. QoQ新增12000!
    • 132% net dollar retention rate. 超高!
    • 963 Paid Customers with greater than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue, up 49% year-over-year.
    • Over 41,000 Paid Customers using shared channels, up from over 32,000 at the end of last quarter.
    • Over 750,000 organizations on either a free or paid subscription plan, up from over 660,000 organizations at the end of last quarter.

Financial Outlook:

For the second quarter of fiscal year 2021, Slack currently expects:

  • Total revenue of $206 million to $209 million, representing year-over-year growth of 42% to 44%. 若以過去水準計算,約可挑戰218M,YoY 50%
  • Non-GAAP operating loss of $22 million to $18 million.
  • Non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.04 to $0.03, assuming weighted average shares outstanding of 564 million.

For the full fiscal year 2021, Slack currently expects:

  • Total revenue of $855 million to $870 million, representing year-over-year growth of 36% to 38%. 僅較上季的預估842~862m上調1%,低於市場預期
  • Non-GAAP operating loss of $110 million to $100 million. 有機會挑戰損益兩平
  • Non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.19 to $0.17, assuming weighted average shares outstanding of 567 million.
  • Free Cash Flow of negative $20 million to $0.

獲利能力 Profitability

Gross Margin (TTM):85.05%
EBITDA Margin (TTM):-80.95%
Free Cash Flow (TTM):-3.46%

EBITDA margin受到超級龐大的Stock based compensation影響變成超醜的數字。Stock based compensation逐季下降中,但26.6%仍明顯多於其他SaaS。是目前財報中最難看的。FCF首度轉正,FY2021的獲利也有機會轉正。獲利能力其實有大幅的改善。

市場估值 Valuation

(Price/(Sales x GM)) / Growth = 0.65
在SaaS群組中屬於中段。

Price / Sale : 若以IPO股票發行量計算P/S為25.7,與TEAM比較,WORK成長率較高,估值較低,具有投資價值。在新冠疫情下屬於受益,PS可能可以維持在25~30的偏高水位。

2021 Apr Target Price : (updated  2020/6/7)
FY2021營業額預估$940M(增長49%),P/S 27.5,股價目標為$46。如遇市場修正PS 20,目標價$32。

技術分析:股價盤了8個月的大底,頸線$30位置具有支撐的機率高。但股價屬於投機性質,波動率過高。VC/PE的持股也還很大,預計震盪會很劇烈。Q1財報後的下跌剛好來測試季線與頸線,屬於不錯的買入點。

股權分佈:VC/PE持股15.3%屬於未來的賣壓,股價漲高容易遇到Insider賣出股票。

未來展望 Future Prospect

  • 優勢
    • 企業數位化之下的受益者,市場TAM 28B,跑道很長
    • App連結多、ecosystem 完整,具有networking effect
    • 用戶使用時間長、黏性高、Net Dollar Retention Rate高達132%
  • 劣勢
    • 通訊/視訊部分為弱項,競爭者Microsoft Teams 正在拉大差距
    • 仰賴免費策略拓展,付費率仍低,產品單一且沒定價能力

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