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美股研究報告

Livongo (LVGO) 健康自主管理

Summary

  • LVGO提供慢性病健康管理軟體,新冠疫情下更加速了TeleHealth認同,營收年增長135%,nonGAAP EPS已經獲利
  • 收入屬於Recurring Revenue來自客戶旗下會員月費
  • 透過節省醫療費用與增進員工健康,達成與Client, Member三贏
  • 短線股價漲幅已大,50以上出現Insider賣壓,建議拉回月線買進,年底目標價格$85

公司簡介 About the company

Livongo 提供即時數據整合的個人慢性病健康管理軟體。參加的會員使用連線的血糖機、血壓機等檢測工具,依照軟體提示定期測量健康數據,資料透過數據分析後提供改善健康的建議,並提供24小時的諮詢服務。目前針對的慢性病管理包含糖尿病、高血壓、體重管理等等。股票於2019年7月上市。

Livongo的銷售模式是透過與企業主或醫療保險(client)提供給有需要的員工或病患(member)。LVGO先與Client簽約後,會開始招攬其會員。並向Client收取加入program的會員月費(Per Member Per Month)。而會員是不用支付任何費用的,甚至是檢查血糖的材料也不用付費。這樣的收費模式大大的吸引了有症狀的病患加入Livongo會員,透過LVGO的慢性病健康管理,個人(Member)可節省每年$1908醫療支出(由Client支付),並因為更規律的自我管理可減少門診費用,替Client節省醫療支出每人約$33/年。換句話說,Livongo解決了美國醫療昂貴缺乏效率的問題,讓軟體+Coach+個人管理來取代門診+醫生,透過效率所節省的費用讓LVGO, Client, Member獲得三贏。

目前公司2020Q1擁有1252個Clients,QoQ成長44%。客戶包括30%的S&P 500企業。而member主要為糖尿病患者,2020Q1會員為328,000位,YoY成長100%。

根據公司的估算,美國糖尿病與高血壓的淺在市場高達46.7B。目前LVGO的糖尿病會員僅328000,約佔總人數31.4M的1%。顯示未來仍有很大的成長空間。

營收成長 Revenue Growth

業績成長(TTM)135%,最新一季營收YoY成長114.3%。糖尿病的會員YoY大幅成長100%。而公司也推出高血壓、體重管理的方案。新冠肺炎所帶來的效應是更多TeleHealth的認同,會員可以透過快遞取得所需的檢測工具,減少不必要的門診。對於LVGO的業務是有幫助的。

最新一季財報 2020 Q1 Summary:

  • Revenue: Total revenue for the quarter was $68.8 million, up 115% year-over-year, driven by the continued adoption of our Applied Health Signals platform. 超出市場預期$66.1M達4%
  • Gross Margin: GAAP gross margin of 73.7% and non-GAAP gross margin of 74.4%.
  • Net Loss and Non-GAAP Net Income: GAAP net loss of $5.6 million, and GAAP net loss per share attributable to common stockholders of ($0.06) on a diluted basis; and non-GAAP net income of $3.9 million, and non-GAAP net income per share attributable to common stockholders of $0.03 on a diluted basis. 超出市場預期的$-0.04。
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $3.8 million in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Livongo for Diabetes Members: Over 328,000 as of March 31, 2020, up approximately 100% year-over-year.
  • Livongo Clients: 1,252 Clients as of March 31, 2020, up approximately 44% quarter-over-quarter.
  • Estimated Value of Agreements (EVA): $89.0 million, up from $48.1 million in the first quarter of 2019. EVA consists of the estimated value of agreements signed in the quarter with new Clients or expansions entered into with existing Clients.

Second Quarter and Fiscal 2020 Outlook

  • For the second quarter of 2020, the company expects revenue in the range of $73.0 million to $75.0 million, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of ($2.0) million to $0.0.個人估計Q2營收可挑戰$77.6M,YoY成長90%。
  • For 2020, the company now expects revenue to grow between 70% and 78% to the range of $290.0 million to $303.0 million, ahead of our previous guidance of approximately $280.0 million to $290.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of ($14.0) million to ($10.0) million. 個人估計年營收可挑戰324M, YoY成長90%。

To support the unprecedented behavioral health needs and increased stress reported by our Members during this time of crisis, we quickly launched new COVID-19 modules within the Livongo for Behavioral Health solution and made them available to all Clients and Members to support their needs. In the past month, we’ve seen increased utilization of all of our Livongo programs, including our market leading behavioral health solution.

獲利能力 Profitability

Gross Margin (TTM):77.24%
EBITDA Margin (TTM):-23.38%
Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM):-23.12%

市場估值 Valuation

(Price/(Sales x GM)) / Growth = 0.32
在SaaS群組中屬於偏低。

Price / Sale : 目前為20左右,但如果使用IPO的股票數來計算,目前股價$55的P/S = 25.2,而PS在3月後大幅飆升,顯示LVGO的投資價值已經被發現,並且與TDOC進估值追價。而TDOC的Q2營收成長率預估為69%,EPS為-0.24。條件上LVGO比TDOC更為優秀,絕對有資格給予高於TDOC的估值。

2020 Dec Target Price : (updated  2020/05/27)
FY2020營業額預估$324M(YoY 90%),P/S在25.5左右,目標價格$85,如遇市場修正P/S降至18,價格$58。

技術分析:股價自3月起成交量就放大許多,從最低20一路上漲到60。短線漲幅太大,有回檔的風險。建議拉回在月線附近買進。

法人持股:VC/PE持股高達39%,並在$50開始出現Insider賣壓,所以拉高容易被出貨。

未來展望 Future Prospect

  • 優勢
    • 遠距醫療成為趨勢,並在新冠疫情後加速發展
    • 經營模式創新,目前並無明顯競爭者,市場還很大
    • 營收高速成長,nonGAAP EPS已經獲利
  • 劣勢
    • 有些人對於LVGO提供的數據(費用節省、患者改善)存在疑慮
    • 短期股價漲幅已大,IPO價格以上存在Insider賣壓

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