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美股研究報告

《Zoom》數位通訊世代的新動詞 – 2020Q1 財報

2020全年營收增長估可挑戰1.9B(+200%),獲利能力大增,Q2估non-GAAP EPS QoQ增長150%達$0.5 起跳。把競爭者遠遠拋在後面。2021 Jan目標價$300。

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) 在北美以及全世界提供網路視訊以及整合通訊服務,讓人與人可以輕鬆透過影像、聲音、文字等,透過手機或電腦,在全世界任何地方進行聯繫。詳細公司介紹請閱讀之前寫的:Zoom Video (ZM) 未來通訊霸主

在新冠肺炎與全球lock down之下,Work From Home的需求讓數位通訊成了讓世界繼續運轉的重要工具。自3月中旬開始,Zoom的網路搜尋量飆升,比第二的Microsoft Teams多出5倍搜尋量。

https://ssl.gstatic.com/trends_nrtr/2213_RC01/embed_loader.js trends.embed.renderExploreWidget(“TIMESERIES”, {“comparisonItem”:[{“keyword”:”zoom”,”geo”:””,”time”:”2020-02-15 2020-06-03″},{“keyword”:”skype”,”geo”:””,”time”:”2020-02-15 2020-06-03″},{“keyword”:”/g/11csb2gq0p”,”geo”:””,”time”:”2020-02-15 2020-06-03″},{“keyword”:”webex”,”geo”:””,”time”:”2020-02-15 2020-06-03″},{“keyword”:”google meet”,”geo”:””,”time”:”2020-02-15 2020-06-03″}],”category”:0,”property”:””}, {“exploreQuery”:”date=2020-02-15%202020-06-03&q=zoom,skype,%2Fg%2F11csb2gq0p,webex,google%20meet”,”guestPath”:”https://trends.google.com.tw:443/trends/embed/”});

根據OKTA的3月login數據統計,Zoom是所有App增長最多的(不含Microsoft Teams)。另外一份直接比較ZM, Webex, RNG的數字則顯示,ZM增長超過200%,大幅贏過Webex, RNG。

在4/22的Zoom blog中表示已達到每日300M個會議參與人,而Microsoft在Q1財報上則是公佈達每日200M會議參與人。顯示兩家企業正激烈搶奪市場,並且成為市場的真正贏家。6/2 ZM公布第一季財報,大家都覺得成長率會很高,但實際數字超過所有人的預估:

First Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Financial Highlights:

  • Revenue: Total revenue for the quarter was $328.2 million, up 169% year-over-year. 市場預估為$203M,業績超出預期61%
  • Income from Operations and Operating Margin: GAAP income from operations for the quarter was $23.4 million, compared to GAAP income from operations of $1.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
  • non-GAAP income from operations for the first quarter was $54.6 million, up from $8.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. For the first quarter, GAAP operating margin was 7.1% and non-GAAP operating margin was 16.6%.
  • Net Income and Net Income Per Share: GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders for the quarter was $27.0 million, or $0.09 per share, compared to GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.2 million, or $0.00 per share in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
    Non-GAAP net income for the quarter was $58.3 million, Non-GAAP net income per share was $0.20. 超出市場預期的$0.10. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, non-GAAP net income was $8.9 million, or $0.03 per share.
  • Cash: Total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of April 30, 2020 was $1.1 billion.
  • Cash Flow: Net cash provided by operating activities was $259.0 million for the quarter, compared to $22.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. Free cash flow was $251.7 million, compared to $15.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020.
  • Approximately 265,400 customers with more than 10 employees, up approximately 354% from the same quarter last fiscal year.
  • 769 customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12 months revenue, up approximately 90% from the same quarter last fiscal year.
  • A trailing 12-month net dollar expansion rate in customers with more than 10 employees above 130% for the 8th consecutive quarter.

Financial Outlook: Zoom is providing the following guidance for its second quarter fiscal year 2021 and its full fiscal year 2021.

  • Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2021: Total revenue is expected to be between $495.0 million and $500.0 million (原本市場估$224M) and non-GAAP income from operations is expected to be between $130.0 million and $135.0 million. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be between $0.44 and $0.46 with approximately 299 million non-GAAP weighted average shares outstanding.
  • Full Fiscal Year 2021: Total revenue is expected to be between $1.775 billion and $1.800 billion. (原本市場估$940M) This revenue outlook takes into consideration the demand for remote work solutions for businesses.  It also assumed increased churn in the second half of the fiscal year when compared to historic churn levels due to a higher percentage of customers who purchased monthly subscriptions in the first quarter. Non-GAAP income from operations is expected to be between $355.0 million and $380.0 million. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be between $1.21 and $1.29 with approximately 300 million non-GAAP weighted average shares outstanding.

財報亮點

  • 2020全年營收增長估可挑戰1.9B(+200%),客戶數265400,增長354% 超乎所有人估計
  • 獲利能力大增:Q2估non-GAAP EPS QoQ增長150%達$0.5 起跳,全年估1.29起跳,Q1 Free Cash Flow 251.7M Yoy 成長154%,FCF margin 76%業界最高,Cash $1.1B

除了財務報表亮麗之外,還有許多亮點:

  • Zoom提供全球超過10萬家12-K學校免費使用,有如Microsoft與Adobe的市場教育行銷投資
  • Video conference 軟體的網路評比一直都位居第一
  • 積極拓展Zoom marketplace, 鼓勵新創使用Zoom api開發新的zoom應用,舉辦創新開發比賽
  • 自去年就開始推廣Zoom phone並可在全球17個國家使用
  • Glassdoor 4.7超高分,員工最愛的公司

The one thing we know for sure is the TAM is bigger than we thought before.

Zoom不是一個視訊軟體,比較貼切的形容是一個世代的代表,例如個人電腦世代的Microsoft、網路搜尋世代的Google、社交世代的Facebook,數位通訊世代的Zoom。

市場估值

Zoom的P/S相當高(71),然而高達200%的營收成長率則數字就親切許多。代表即使股價不變,過了一年後的P/S是23.67。作為一個世代的代表,ZM的估值應該會一直很貴、波動一直很大。若使用營收$1.98B, PS 44計算,2021年目標價約為$300。

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